Test Your Lead Defence

Column 11

N-S vul, Playing Teams as South you hold: ♠Q7652 ♥106 ♦J52 ♣K73

The bidding:

West               North             East                South

  -                     -                       1NT                 Pass

2♣                   Pass                2♥                   Pass               

3NT                 All Pass         

What do you lead?

Well 4^th best from longest and strongest is a spade. Is this a good lead? Not really. Partner has one or two spades. Declarer is guaranteed to have two stoppers.*

A heart is also unlikely to be successful as declarer has shown at least four of them. Partner could have AQJ10x, but if so, likely not another high card.

Down to the minors – two honour thirds. Toss a coin?

No. (Even if you want to show off your new $5 coin). Partner had a chance to double 2♣ for a lead and didn’t. So a small inference, but it is the small inferences that can lead to success or failure.

*Actually that is not technically true. He may have only one if partner has ♠AK. But you still would need two entries – one to knock out the stopper, and one to cash two good spades. The full deal:

Eventually declarer will likely take a club finesse for his ninth trick, and go down.

Lessons to Learn

1.  Remember to look for the ‘dog that didn’t bark’ inferences.

2. The spade situation is one that is worth being familiar with: A five card suit to be set up when you know one opponent has four of them. Q87xx is the worst holding that can be theoretically set up on the first in one round.

           K654

Q8732                             A10

                        J9

Also in this situation always lead a small spade:

J10543            lead the 4

J10943            Lead the 4

QJ1043           Lead the 4

KQ1043          Lead the 4

KQJ43             Lead the 4

AKQ43            Lead the 4

AKQJ4             Okay, you got me, lead an honour.